Wednesday 03 November 2004 A new scientific study says the Arctic ice cover will disappear in summer by the end of this century unless carbon dioxide emissions are significantly reduced. The study, to be released next week, says the Arctic ice melt will cause sea levels to rise and could lead to the extinction of some species such as polar bears. "The melt has begun," said Jennifer Morgan, director of the Climate Change Campaign for the environmental organisation WWF, which published excerpts of the upcoming Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report. Commissioned by the Arctic Council and compiled by more than 250 scientists, the report concludes that climate change is happening in the Arctic and that it will get worse unless emissions of carbon dioxide are cut. Grim predictions The report presents several potential scenarios which would occur if the Arctic ice were to disappear in summertime by the end of the 21st century. It said sea levels could rise by one metre, noting that there are currently 17 million people living less than one metre above sea level in Bangladesh. It said places such as Florida and Louisiana in the United States and the Asian cities of Bangkok, Calcutta, Dhaka and Manila were also at risk. However, on the positive side, rising sea levels could create a northern passage for shipping between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and would open up new areas for fishing, mining and oil and gas exploration. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which is expected to take hundreds of years, could ultimately lead to a seven-metre rise in sea levels, the report said. Threatened bears "Polar bears could become extinct by the end of this century. They are unlikely to survive if there is an almost complete loss of summer sea ice cover," the WWF said. Polar bears feed mainly on seals living under the ice, which the large mammals break to catch their prey. The ACIA report is to be published in its entirety on 8 November. The WWF welcomed the report, but stressed the hypocrisy of the eight members of the Arctic Council - the United States, Canada, Russia, Japan, Finland, Sweden, Iceland and Norway -which sponsored it, noting that they emit more than 30% of global carbon dioxide emissions.

States argue as Arctic thaw quickens Global warming is set to accelerate in the Arctic and bring drastic change for people and wildlife in coming decades. But the alarming findings of new study have divided countries in the region about how to slow down the thaw. "(The) Arctic climate is warming rapidly now and much larger changes are projected," according to the conclusions of the international study, compiled by 600 experts and due for release at a conference in Iceland in November. Rising temperatures will disrupt life for people, bringing more storms and destabilising everything from homes to oil pipelines. Melting glaciers could raise global sea levels and spoil habitats for creatures like polar bears, it says.

Greenhouse gases The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world partly because sea water and dark ground, once exposed, trap far more heat than ice and snow which reflect the sun's rays. The report's draft summary says the rise in temperatures is being stoked by human emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels in cars, factories and power plants. Arctic temperatures could surge by 4-7 Celsius or roughly double the rate predicted by UN studies for the planet as a whole by 2100, it says. But nations in the Arctic region - the United States, Russia, Canada and Nordic countries - are sharply divided about how to act on the scientists' conclusions, with Washington opposed to any major initiatives, diplomatic sources say. US reluctance Nordic countries see the study as alarming evidence that the world should act to cap emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from fossil fuels. But US President George Bush is an opponent of caps and pulled out of the UN's stalled Kyoto protocol in 2001, the main global plan for limiting emissions. He said Kyoto would be too costly and wrongly excluded developing nations. Ministers from Arctic nations are to meet in Iceland in November, after the report is issued, to agree recommendations. Global effect Among conclusions, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) says the warming in the Arctic will "have worldwide implications". Run-off from melting glaciers and the Greenland icecap could raise global sea levels and disrupt ocean circulation, it says. And biodiversity elsewhere could be affected because some migratory species breed in the Arctic. The report also says "Arctic vegetation zones are projected to shift, bringing wide-ranging impacts" and that "animal species' diversity, ranges and distributions will change, some dramatically.”

And indigenous peoples would face major economic and cultural impacts, it says. Ultraviolet radiation - known to cause skin cancer and immune system disorders in humans - would also rise sharply.